Saturday, November 1, 2008

and another thing ( from Richie to Robert)

Again, while repeatedly conceding the point that an Obama victory is not 'in the bag,' I want to point out that the aggregate polling data is better for Obama today than it has been at just about any point in time.

Take your pick, they're all saying the same thing:

I don't trust polling data all that much, especially this year (election results represent present-day reality, whereas polls reflect an approximation of a sentiment at a time that has already passed, within a margin of error that is contingent upon near-perfect methodology), but at least if you're going to cite it, take a look at the big picture, which is rosier (not cloudier) than ever. If there was a 'Joe the Plumber' bump, it has long since faded, much like the Palin bump that not only evaporated but later inverted. (Incidentally, both of them draw passionate rally crowds, and her disapproval rating is sky-high, so rally enthusiasm does not necessarily equal public support level, though you seem to have drawn this conclusion with Joe the Plumber). I think it's time to move on to the next non-story story that the Republicans will use to try to sway the electorate (which, as I see it, is going to be this Obama-has-illegal-immigrants-in-his-family one).

Republicans like to do things because their 'gut' tells them it's right. We're wonky liberals, who like to fret and overanalyze. This may be our downfall, or it may be our salvation, but either way it is how we always do things. So, just because you 'feel' like Joe the Plumber is swaying the election, doesn't necessarily make it true, according to my dispassionate analysis of objective reality (which, as Stephen Colbert once so eloquently said, has a well-known liberal bias). Then again, if the polls are all wrong (which they may very well be) and the general consensus is wrong too, I think it's time to go with your gut (but beware the indigestion this might cause).

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