Wednesday, September 16, 2015

The Flavor of the Month

Heading into tonight's second Republican debate, it appears clear that the candidacy of Donald Trump must be taken seriously. While some pundits point out that Mr. Trump has the support of only a relatively small percentage of potential primary voters in his party, it stands to reason that many, if not most, of those now supporting others will likely switch their allegiance to Mr. Trump as the number of candidates whittles to a precious few.

However, we should turn to the most recent past, four years ago, to gain some perspective on whether we will be going to Mr. Trump's coronation in January of 2017. In the summer and fall of 2011 the following were national headlines:

July 19, 2011 - Michele Bachmann takes lead in national polls
August 15, 2011 - Donald Trump leads 2012 GOP field
August 24, 2011 - A second poll in two weeks shows Rick Perry with a significant lead over his competition
October 7, 2011 - Herman Cain opens up a 20 point lead on Romney

This election cycle feels different, seems like every predicate is without meaning and the only constant is that the conventional is in serious trouble. Non-politicians prosper on the right and a life long lone voice on the fringe surges on the left.

But for those of us who find ludicrous the thought of a Donald Trump running the office of the Presidency like a bull in a china shop, at least we can hold on to history for some comfort in knowing that today's king or queen may well be old news tomorrow.

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