Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Man Overboard

Nate Silver and the other data driven experts just took us for a nice ride on the Titanic. Mistaken predictions piled so high we couldn't see the iceberg directly in front of us. 

And the ultimate disaster is that we now have a sinking feeling notwithstanding all the polls which reveal that Hillary will win in a landslide. There is the sense that predicting the level of animosity towards the Democratic frontrunner or the fervor that will propel the candidacy of Mr. Trump is not knowable by scientific calculation. That we underestimate the power of Donald at our peril.

The Nates (Cohn and Silver) and the other collectors of the "tells" that reveal our inner truths, will have to shake this off, climb back on board and try to right the ship in what surely shapes up as a titanic struggle this fall. They should just remember to wear their life jackets this time.

1 comment:

Michael Gansl said...

Bottom line - do not underestimate the "Don". The second bottom line - do not underestimate the ignorance of the American public.
The third bottom line - do not underestimate journalists hungry for ratings. The fourth bottom line - do not underestimate the pollsters who do not adhere to the adage, "garbage in, garbage out". The fifth bottom line - I think you've gotten my point(s) by now!!